Grand Canyon Village, AZ (86023) Flooding & Climate Risk Profile

The primary drivers of climate-related financial risk in Grand Canyon Village, AZ (86023) are Inland Flooding, Avalanche, and Wildfire. This area also faces an unusually high intensity for Lightning, Heat Wave, Landslide, and Winter Weather compared to national averages.

Understanding the Dollars

Expected Annual Loss (EAL) is a statistical average of property damage for this entire zip code over a standard year across all properties.

/ It represents the "average cost" rather than a guaranteed yearly bill.
/ It can be used to compare the relative risk from different hazards and across different neighborhoods.

Zip Code Risk Map

Flood Plain Analysis

Significant Flood Exposure in 86023

FEMA Flood Maps for 86023 identify the "100-year" and "500-year" floodplains (1% and 0.2% annual chance), but modern climate risk analysis suggests that nearly 25% of flood insurance claims originate from properties outside of these designated high-risk zones.

Use the map above to better understand risk by looking at both the FEMA flood plain maps and FEMA Risk Inventory maps by census tract. Standard FEMA maps may not account for 'flash flooding' from intense rain events.

FEMA Designation vs. Reality

Relatively High

Relative Vulnerability

$690,173

Annualized Property Exposure

Primary Risks

Inland Flooding

$690,173

Expected Annual Loss for Zip Code 86023

94.5Score

Relatively High compared to US average

Avalanche

$203,845

Expected Annual Loss for Zip Code 86023

77.0Score

Relatively Low compared to US average

Wildfire

$191,489

Expected Annual Loss for Zip Code 86023

98.2Score

Relatively High compared to US average

Financial Risk Inventory

MAJOR DRIVER

Inland Flooding

$690,173

Score: 94.5

MAJOR DRIVER

Avalanche

$203,845

Score: 77.0

MAJOR DRIVER

Wildfire

$191,489

Score: 98.2

UNUSUALLY HIGH

Lightning

$64,513

Score: 99.6

Cold Wave

$50,077

Score: 76.2

UNUSUALLY HIGH

Heat Wave

$42,085

Score: 83.5

UNUSUALLY HIGH

Landslide

$41,977

Score: 99.7

Earthquake

$29,243

Score: 71.1

UNUSUALLY HIGH

Winter Weather

$11,894

Score: 96.8

Tornado

$2,971

Score: 20.5

Hail

$2,495

Score: 50.5

Ice Storm

$1,234

Score: 41.9

Strong Wind

$572

Score: 12.6

Volcanic Activity

Score: 74.7

Recommended Mitigation Strategies

Recommended investments to protect your property value and reduce insurance liability based on your local risk profile.

💧Medium Investment

Inland Flooding Mitigation

Install a smart sump pump with battery backup and extend downspouts 10ft from foundation.

Risk Score: 94.5

🏠Low Investment

Avalanche Mitigation

General property maintenance and insurance review recommended.

Risk Score: 77.0

🔥Low Investment

Wildfire Mitigation

Create a 5ft 'non-combustible' zone around your home using gravel or pavers instead of mulch.

Risk Score: 98.2

🏠Low Investment

Lightning Mitigation

General property maintenance and insurance review recommended.

Risk Score: 99.6

☀️Low Investment

Heat Wave Mitigation

Ensure attic insulation is R-49+ and consider a dual-fuel backup generator for AC.

Risk Score: 83.5

⛰️High Investment

Landslide Mitigation

Professional slope stabilization and foundation drainage inspection is highly recommended.

Risk Score: 99.7

🏠Low Investment

Winter Weather Mitigation

General property maintenance and insurance review recommended.

Risk Score: 96.8

Methodology and Sources

Spatial Climate Risk Modeling

The Expected Annual Loss (EAL) and hazard risk scores are derived from the FEMA NRI zip code dataset using a population-weighted spatial join. Because Zip Codes and Census Tracts do not share perfectly aligned boundaries, we utilize US Census Block Group population centroids to identify where residents actually live.

Financial & Insurance Metrics

The pysical resilence score is calculated by synthesizing Expected Annual Loss (EAL) against the total building replacement value within a jurisdiction. This creates a "Loss Ratio" that measures physical resilience. We supplement this with ZIP-code level data from the U.S. Treasury's Federal Insurance Office (FIO), monitoring trends in premium growth, loss ratios, and policy non-renewals to identify emerging "Insurance Deserts."

Primary Data Sources

FEMA National Flood Hazard LayerHigh-resolution vector data for 100-year and 500-year flood zones.
U.S. Department of the TreasuryFIO ZIP-code level insurance data (2018–2022 Historical Set).
FEMA National Risk IndexBaseline hazard frequency and economic loss data (v1.20.0).
U.S. Census BureauTIGER/Line 2025 Shapefiles & Decennial Population Statistics.

Nearby Locations

Zip Code 86046